Warmists Already Lowering Expectations For 2015 COP21 Agreement

The road map to COP21, note the beginning of the end of fossil fuel use scheduled for 2016.

There was a departure last year at COP19 with the warming alarmist industry scaling down the expectations of exactly what COP19 would achieve, which was just well, because in addition to being the 5th successive UNFCCC COP meeting in a row to crash and burn, COP19 showed the cracks appearing in the Green agenda.

All the Green NGOs and other self proclaimed representatives of civil society, walked out of the meeting when the western world refused to pay trillions of dollars in so called “Climate Justice” money. The cake was then truly iced with an awesome bout of name calling between Venezuela and the EU Climate Commissar Connie Hedegaard, who blamed Hedegaard not only for the failure of COP19, but also COP15.

The spectre of COP15 haunts the warming alarmist pysche, the high water mark of Green ambition, it has all been downhill since 2009.

So ingrained into the Green collective memory is COP15, they now believe that politicians will not reach a meaningful deal because they are frightened of having another COP15 debacle at COP21.

Choosing words and phrases that mean everything and nothing is a favoured pastime of politicians. ‘Big society’, ‘Change we can believe in’, ‘Yes we can’, ‘Yes America can’, ‘Don’t Stop, Keep Going On’ – I’ll stop now.

But words are important, and in the context of international treaties where arguments can rage over where to place a comma, they take an added significance.

And it has struck me as increasingly odd in the past few months how a growing cohort of diplomats, politicians and business leaders talk of a ‘meaningful’ global climate change deal in 2015.

Not a legally binding, global warming busting, industry transforming epic of a treaty. But a ‘meaningful outcome’ that can help satisfy some of those criteria just mentioned.

The cheerleaders for the Anthropogenic Global Warming boondoggle have always called for a legally binding treaty, the problem being in the case of the now defunct Kyoto Protocol, the UN has absolutely no legal powers at all to enforce Kyoto, or any other climate treaty, come to that.

Interestingly Christiana Figueres Head of the UNFCCC, anti-capitalist and long term Hugo Chavez ally is still pushing for a legally binding agreement and demanding US $! trillion a year for Climate Justice, with is simply never going to happen.

Well, it does appear that, as politicians become re-engaged with this issue, the smell of pragmatism and a desire not to face another UN summit car-crash like Copenhagen in 2009 is defining the negotiations.

Wish projection at its most intense, the only reason politicians are “re-engaging” with AGW, is so that they can disconnect from it as fast as possible because Green politics, Green energy and just about everything Green is fast becoming politically toxic.

And pertinently, it’s one Pascal Canfin, the French Minister running preparations for Paris in 2015, has started to stress: “For a number of countries, including the US, a legal agreement on binding targets will be very difficult for political reasons. On the other hand, if there is only a bottom-up approach…it will be very difficult for public opinion,” he said last October.

The Man Made Climate Change scare is  running out of steam, Obama recognized prior to COP19 that selling any agreement involving wealth transfer to the American voter was a non starter, public belief in the Green fear stories has continued in free fall, so public opinion really only refers to the dwindling band of those terrified by CO2.

No-one is willing to place their cards on the table, but observers and negotiators RTCC has spoken to since the last round of UN talks in Warsaw suggest that instead of a ‘treaty’ in 2015 we’re likely to see agreement over a framework of how ambitious pledges can be delivered, together with a more transparent and efficient process for countries to measure, report and verify their greenhouse gas emissions.

More trees will die in vain to produce another UNFCCC COP agreement that is not worth the paper its printed on.

Then there is the problem of declining Green ambition within the EU:

The EU wants a legal treaty, but its influence is waning, and internal battles over fracking, its renewables target and whether it should adopt a 35 or 45% emissions reduction target for 2030 hardly inspire confidence.

Interest and blind Green zealous support within the EU will continue to decline as the 4 year term for Climate Commissar Connie Hedegaard and the other unelected member of the Green cabal at the heart of EU climate policy comes to an end in September 2014. The new Commissars are likely to be a whole lot less Green and and a lot more pro industry than their predecessors.

Despite brave words from the UNFCCC’s most experienced climate scammer diplomat Michael Zammit Cutajar COP21 is still going to crash and burn.

“Given the preferences of US and China, I do not expect that the 2015 deal envisaged in the Durban Platform (effective 2020) will come to an elegant, logical resolution,” he said. “I expect the 2015 outcome to be an aggregation of pledges or commitments, in which motivated countries (islands, LDCs, EU etc) will push for highest level of ambition.”

An aggregation of pledges or commitments, isn’t that what the military refer to as a clusterfuck?